Bitcoin Price Analysis 16 sept 2015

3 minute read

Posted by: pesa_mic

September 16, 2015


This week, bitcoin’s price gradually declined to a low of $ 227, from last week’s $ 240. It has been a slow grind down from the past 4 week high, $ 247. Trading is now ranging within the rectangle, on a sideways trend that almost always precedes a break out. Up or down?

“If bulls can’t put together a significant rally up to at least $235 in the coming hours, I’d say a dump down to the mid $220s is on the horizon.”

$ 233 is upper bound resistance for this range, and $ 230 the lower bound; sharp spikes on either side indicate there is market resistance to go lower (or higher). The market is consolidating, and will soon tip to either side.

On the 12 h chart, a larger trading range is obvious. Peak to peak fibonacci retracement levels from $318 to $196, confirm this range flanked by 38% fib and 23% fib on the upper and lower bounds respectively. Resistance at $ 241 and 38% fib rejected attempts to break out of this channel,even after 6 days of sideways attempts. As of writing this, price at $228 sits slightly above the lower bound. I expect it to at least test this support at $224. Part of this may result in spikes as far down as $220. Question is will it hold or buckle?

Short term trend from $318 has been trading within a downward sloping channel. Lateral support at $224 from fibonacci levels, and $220 a longer term support intersect, meaning the next week will be decisive. Either support holds and price jumps back up out of the channel, or it is broken and price dips lower.

Bitcoin exchange BTC China rebrands

From Coindesk, BTCC is the new name for BTC China, as the company rebrands to internationalize its image. A new logo was launched simultaneously, together with a planned release of its mobile app. Last month, BTCC publicized its application for a NYDFS BitLicense.

“Bitcoin is global, and as we launch more products and services to serve the global audience, we needed a more global name,” said CEO,Bobby Lee

Ark Invest, Equity Fund ETF Invests in bitcoin reported Ark invest, an investment vehicle with $12 million in managed assets, as the first ETF to offer direct exposure to bitcoin. The fund invests in internet-linked companies of the next internet-evolution. Its bitcoin holdings, acquired through obtained through publicly traded shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, make up 0.27% of total funds. While it’s not a commodity or currency ETF, it is first to market, beating Winklevoss expected ETF COIN.

“Ark Invest sees the price decline and, more importantly, the recent range-bound action as a perfect entry opportunity.”

Ledger X gets temporary nod from CFTC to execute Bitcoin swaps

Led by CEO Paul Chou, this bitcoin startup intends to set up an institutional grade bitcoin options exchange with full regulatory backing. Coindesk reported the company received a temporary approval from US Commodities Futures Trading Commission to facilitate swap executions. However, the startup has its eyes set on a full license, and reiterated it will not launch until then.

“This is a first step, and is positive progress, but it is just one milestone toward our ultimate goal. Our mission is still to obtain a derivatives clearing organization license (DCO) to operate a federally regulated bitcoin derivatives exchange and clearing house. At this time, we do not intend to launch with only a SEF license.”


Overall, the market is split between the beginning of another bull cycle, or the threat of lower prices sub 200. $200 – $300 range has been difficult to get out of, as price keeps coming back to retest support at $ 200.

Bitcoin hit our target of $246 and is now falling. I expect an impulsive drop to $226.43 then a 3 wave upward correction. That will be my signal to go short targeting below $150.”

This week I am bearish and expect any recovery of price upward to be limited within current price and max price of $ 240. Low $200 prices could be re-tested here and this may be the final test that breaks below $200. $225 will be decisive depending on how strong it holds.

At this point, looking at price projections in the mid -term is best, as the market is at a critical level. Look out for an analysis report on the midterm to long term price outlook, and the real possibility of $ 100 coins!

Updated: 2015-09-16