Bitcoin Price Analysis – Jun 9th

4 minute read

Posted by: pesa_mic

June 10, 2015

This week, besides the past 36 hours, BTC markets have not elicited much excitement since last week’s bottom at $219. After last week’s drop, in what has become the norm, a sideways trend took over, trading within a $ 3 range bound by $225 upper and $222 up. Notably, a spike on June 5th, shot up to $230 within a trading hour, backed by volumes of about 6000. On a larger timeframe, this was a bleep, and highly suspect, considering $230 was a reasonable target on this retracement.

In the past couple of days, prices broke out of this narrow trading range shooting up 2% to the most recent $232. The number of short positions on bitfinex quickly declined as price went up, leading some to speculate on traders short covering.

On a 1 day frame, it is clear we are still within 2 fibonacci lines drawn from January’s $166 bottom low and a peak at $315. These two extremes, mark our range between 38.2% and 50% retracement. While there have been multiple attempts at breaching upper and lower resistance at – $217, $213, $219 and $222 – all have been rejected. For any moves up, $240 is certainly a level to keep an eye on.

Not much has changed looking at EMAs; weak volumes and several failed attempts to break and hold above 30, 50, 100 and 200 – day EMAs. All EMAs have also turned sideways since late April, flattening out within 38% and 50% fib levels. Any strong upward move will have to break above and ride on one of these as support for the short or long term. Like the upward trend from $ 210 to $303; it broke all moving averages with strong volumes, but failed to hold above 200 EMA. For now, they have formed an upper resistance.

This weekly chart reiterates opposition observed around this zone since February. An upper resistance line dating back to $1163 high in December resists upper moves to break it. $232, where the market is now testing, could reasonably piercing above it, like previous attempts marked by arrows. The real question is whether market sentiment enough to go above it and hold?

Read on for the weekly price forecast.

BITCOIN FUNDAMENTALS Launches Cryptocurrency Trading App

CEO Eric Voorhees announced the release of an iOS app that allows users to exchange one cryptocurrency for 34 others – on the go with no sign ups required. According to Forbes, it is currently only available on iOS, and will soon launch on android. Shapeshift acts only as an intermediary, letting you sell X for Y digital currency, thus, posing no risk.

“We don’t ever have to hold customer money like a normal exchange. It’s a definite advance for consumer protection because there’s no risk of hacking or of the operators running away with money.”

Overstock Issues First Ever $25 million Crypto Bond

Crypto history was made this week, after Overstock issued its digital bond to qualified investors on a cryptographically-protected distributed ledger – similar to Bitcoin’s blockchain but, powered by Open Assets protocol. Market Watch reported Patrick Byrne, CEO, made the first purchase of Overstock OSD – 2% for $ 500,000, paving the way for potentially more ‘accredited investors’ as per Rule 506(c) of Regulation D under the Securities Act of 1933.

“Those who purchase crypto bonds through TØ.com will be able to track their ownership on the bitcoin blockchain.”

For a while now, Overstock has talked up a crypto finance platform, Medici, intended to bring transparency and faster settlement times in the securities markets by using blockchain technology.


My forecast this week hasn’t deviated much from last week – neutral to bearish. I am not convinced by the strength of this recent move up – from $ 219 to $232. It resembles an extended correction, from a larger 5 wave count move down from $ 303.

As a precaution, it is possible, that price could head up to higher targets.This would mean a retracement to upper targets are $240 and at best $ 250.

As can be seen, $ 230 is a consistent resistance/support zone, since way back in January. The move down from $303 has found relative support around this area. Despite dipping as low $ 213, the $200/$210 territory continues to hold, but, for how long?

I am expecting $ 230 (give or take) to prove a strong resistance zone, and mark the end of this short term move up. The target for a lower move in this scenario would be just above $ 210.

Nothing decisive has come out of the past weeks of sideways action. A retest of $200 and sub $ 200 price levels is just a matter of when and not if. Given how long this zone has held, any break below it will lead to panic accompanied by massive dumping by longs who bought in at this zone. Best to have some fiat tucked away for when we hit bottom.

Updated: 2015-06-10