Posted by: Evan Faggart October 5, 2014
The week of September 28, 2014 through October 4, 2014 was an extremely Bearish week. Continuing the downward trend that has been present in the Bitcoin markets for months, the Bitcoin price fell for the entirety of the week. Overall, during the whole week, the price fell by a total of 16.67%—a massive drop compared to last week’s decline of 1.95%
Here are the daily prices from the Bitstamp Bitcoin exchange for the week:
Note: The prices in this list have been rounded to the nearest dollar amount. Therefore, the descriptions of the price movements in this report will not be 100% accurate. Additionally, please notice that the price for October 4 is the closing price, rather than the opening price.
Sept 28: $402
Sept 29: $379 (-5.72%)
Sept 30: $377 (-0.52%)
Oct 1: $391 (+3.71%)
Oct 2: $385 (-1.53%)
Oct 3: $376 (-2.34%)
Oct 4 Close: $335 (-7.46%)
Weekly change: -16.67%
The first day of the week opened within the sideways price range between the $390s and the $400s that had been established during the previous week. That trend would not last into this week though, and the Bitcoin price began falling almost immediately after Sunday, September 28, began. The price declined steadily throughout the day, falling to $379 as it went into Monday, the 29th.
The 29th of September was a slightly calmer day on the Bitcoin markets; while there was a lot of fluctuation throughout the day, the opening and closing prices were not very far apart, meaning that there was little overall change for the day. September 20 started at $379, took a relatively large dip to $365 at 2 AM, and then returned to the $380s at 12 PM. The Bitcoin price then fell once more into the $380s, eventually ending the day at $377—a mere $2 decline from the start of the day.
September 30 saw Bitcoin price activity that was uncharacteristic of the overall trend for the week. Making modest, yet steady, gains for the duration of the day, the price had reached $384 by the bottom of the noon hour—a 1.86% increase during the first half of the day. At some point during the 4 PM hour, the price reached a daily peak of $397.75. The day ended at $391.
The first day of October was relatively flat overall. Following a Bitcoin price drop during the early morning hours, the price leveled out at 10 AM and stayed flat for the rest of the day. At the close of October 1, the Bitcoin price sat at $385.
The last 3 days of the week saw constant declines, with the Bitcoin price dropping well below the $370s, which is lowest the price went during the first half of the week. October 2 did not have a steep decline; in fact, the drop in the Bitcoin price on this day was very slight. Nevertheless, the price did fall continuously throughout the day. It fell from the opening price of $385 to $377 at the bottom of the noon hour, and the day closed at $376. The third of October saw a much more pronounced price decrease, falling from its opening price of $376 to $363 by the end of midday, $358 by the close of 8 PM, and the closing price for the day was $362. October 4, the last day of the week, saw an even greater price decline. By the bottom of the noon hour, the price had fallen to $338, a $24 decline. At 4 PM, the price hit a daily low of $322.04; the day ended at $335.
Thus, this last week was very rough on those who were hoping for an end to the falling Bitcoin price. The week’s price activity had people in the Bitcoin community speculating on where the bottom of this most recent decline would be, signaling that at least the most vocal members of the community have given up on the idea that the price will quickly rebound and soar above and beyond $600 into a new and glorious “bubble.” Many people have speculated that the bottom of this decline is $265, the price point just before the huge price spike in late 2013. Others believe that $265 is far from the bottom, and will continue falling into the $100s, and possibly go below $90. None of these predictions can be treated with certainty though; the former group uses $265 since it was a “resistance level” that the price could not go under, but there really is no such thing as a “resistance level,” as historical data cannot—under any circumstances—be used to confidently predict the activity of an inherently uncertain future. The Bitcoin economy is in an entirely different state than it was in late 2013, and the price-determining factors are decidedly different. Merchant adoption has drastically expanded, mining is a much larger industry, and valuations are constantly shifting; all of those factors put downward pressure on the Bitcoin price, and they are not consistent with the price-determining factors of last year. The latter group uses pure speculation, which of course can never be treated as indisputable fact. The reality is that no one knows when the price decline will stop, only time can give us that information.